Another week, another near .500 record. And because I missed out on the Bears +3.5 (a pick I made on Twitter), I’m already in a hole this week. By taking a look at the lines, I envision this weekend being a dominant one for the books. So many fishy lines, and so many sucker bets waiting to get taken. Here’s what I like, take it with a grain of salt.
Record to Date (Last week)
Ryan: 50-51 (6-7)
Jags +7 over Jets. The Jets don’t scare me a bit and I think there’s too many points to work with in this matchup. Sure, they’re coming off a bye. But unless they found a replacement for Kris Jenkins, I think their defensive woes will continue. Maurice Jones Drew is flying under the radar, but he’s got 11 touchdowns already. Give him a couple more after this one.
Redskins +4 over Broncos. I know I said that I was fading the Redskins the rest of the year, but I love this pick. Despite their woes, the Redskins still have the best passing defense in the league. They’re coming off a bye and Denver has a short week. Also, the Broncos have a big game against San Diego next week. Oh, and about 65% of bets are on the Broncos.
Steelers -7 over Bengals. Probably the most surprising line of the weekend. The Bengals already beat Pittsbrgh once and are coming off another win against Baltimore. So why the big spread? Much like when the Vikings came to Heinz Field, people are all over the underdog. This game’s probably better off teasing one way or the other, but I think the Steelers get it done.
Titans -7 over Bills. Makes you wonder why Vince Young wasn’t brought in sooner. In two starts, he’s completed over 70% of his passes. It doesn’t hurt that he has the BEST running back in football behind him, but nevertheless, the Titans are playing better under Young’s watch. Look for this to continue against the Bills.
Lions +17 over Vikings. Too many points, I can’t do it. Double digit dogs have been faring better in recent weeks.
Saints -13.5 over Rams. I’m in a bind here. This pick seems way too easy and betters have been hammering the Saints all week, only to see the spread drop half a point. I took Minnesota and Indy over the Rams without hesitating. I have to admit, I hesitated on this one. Reminds me of the Eagles-Raiders line. I’m saving face here, I didn’t want to have the Rams picked only to see them lose by 30.
Panthers +2 over Falcons. The Panthers have covered their last two games by following one simple rule. Do NOT, under any circumstances, let Jake Delhomme throw the ball. He threw 14 times in Arizona, and just five times in a great first half at New Orleans. RUN THE BALL, CAROLINA. RUN. THE. BALL.
Dolphins -10 over Bucs. Loved what I saw from Josh Freeman last weekend, the Bucs have themselves a good one. But I don’t think the Bucs are racking up six sacks on the Dolphins like they did on the Packers. This Miami team is a hell of a lot better than their 3-5 record indicates.
Chiefs +2 over Raiders. No comment.
Seahawks +9 over Cardinals. I’ve swung and missed on just about every Cardinals game this year. They’re a tough team to gauge because they fold up shop at home, and then wreck faces on the road. The Cardinals embarrassed Seattle at Qwest Field a few weeks back. Will they do it again?
Chargers -1 over Eagles. I have missed every single game involving the Chargers. Most teams would take a win at the Meadowlands and use it as a stepping stone the rest of the way. With Norv Turner’s team, they’re just as likely to lose by two touchdowns. I’m going to ride the home team here…and probably regret it.
Packers +3 over Cowboys. Another team I keep picking against…the Cowboys. I hate this sort of reasoning, but doesn’t it just seem like the Packers need this one more? Factor in that pesky reverse line movement, and we have the makings of an upset. If the Packers want to block somebody, that would help too.
Colts -3 over Patriots. Did you guys hear that these teams have a history against each other? Did you hear that they’re playing this weekend? There’s better bets out there, I would reccomend just sitting back and enjoying this one. And for the record, I like Indy.
Ravens -11 over Browns. Brady Quinn is playing. But once he throws two interceptions in the first quarter, Derek Anderson will probably play. And once he gets his ass kicked, Eric Mangini will probably be blamed.
