College Football Best Bets for 9-27-08

Last Week: 1-3 (FAIL)
Overall: 9-7

USC -14 1st half over Oregon State:Â I usually don’t put exotics into my bets, but I’m a big fan of this line. It’s simple…two touchdowns. We’re not messing around with USC needing 14.5 or 15, so it seems like a pretty safe bet. USC remembers their last trip to Corvallis and while home teams have a great record of covering on Thursday night, I can’t go against the Trojans. They’re coming off a bye, so it’s highly unlikely they have an emotional letdown after smacking Ohio State. The game spread is big, but this halftime line seems very, very reasonable.

Fresno State -6.5 over UCLA:Â Since the Bruins embarrassed me by upsetting Tennesee, they’ve been one of the worst teams in the country. After getting dismantled by BYU, they lost 31-10 at home to Arizona in a game that was even more lopsided than that. All the Bruins could muster was a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Look for UCLA’s defense to be put into impossible positions because of their anemic offense. Fresno rolls.

Miami -7.5 over UNC: It’s early, but the giant at Miami is slowly but surely rising back to form. The U rolled Texas A&M 41-23 last weekend, but the Aggies got a couple of garbage time touchdowns to make it look closer than it really was. Now they come home to kick off ACC play against North Carolina, who went from “dangerous” to “awful” once quarterback TJ Yates went down with an injury. Look for them to rattle whichever backup quarterback the Tar Heels roll out there.

LSU -24 over Mississippi State:Â I very rarely touch games with point spreads this big, but I fail to see how Sylvester Croom’s team can come close to hanging with the Bayou Bengals. How is MSU going to score here? They dropped 2 points on Auburn and 7 on Georgia Tech. Assuming they won’t score more than 10 points, LSU will need 34 points to cover. I like my chances.