The 2007 New England Patriots were arguably one of the best teams the NFL has ever seen, going undefeated in the regular season and running an amazing 18 game winning streak before losing in the Super Bowl to the New York Giants. They torched numerous records on their way to the Super Bowl including a record 50 touchdown passes from Touchdown Tom Brady. Many people are anxious to put the Pats right back in the Super Bowl this year after falling one game short, but I’m hesitant. In fact, I have five good reasons why the Patriots won’t even be the best team in the AFC this season.
1. Copycat League. The NFL is the definition of a copy cat league. If it works, teams are going to adapt to it to either stop it or to use it. Case in point, the Patriots spread offense that torched teams all season and led Tom Brady to throw 50 touchdown passes, 23 to Randy Moss. It took all season for someone to figure it out, but the New York Giants blew Brady and his boys off their blocks in the Super Bowl. The team that was favored by two touchdowns barely scored two touchdowns as the Giants defensive line assaulted Brady. The 30 teams that weren’t playing in that game were paying attention. Everyone is well aware how to beat the Patriots. Hone in on Moss and Welker and get after Brady.
2. Strength of Conference. It’s no secret that the AFC is clearly the more dominant conference, loaded with teams that might not make the playoffs in the AFC but would be playoff locks in the NFC. The other two dominant teams in the AFC, Indy and San Diego, haven’t gotten worse over the course of the off-season and both would like a shot to take down the conference champ if given the opportunity. You can’t tell me LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t chomping at the bit for the week six matchup against New England after watching his team fall to the Patriots while sitting unable to play on the sidelines. Oh and apparently the Jets just added this quarterback, I think his name is Brett Farve, or Brett Favre. He’s supposed to be pretty good.
3. Injuries. It’s unfortunate to say but this has already hit the Patriots. Quarterback Tom Brady didn’t even make the trip to Tampa Bay while back-ups Matt Cassel and Kevin O’Connell looked incapable of operating an NFL offense. This team has its share of superstars, but losing a guy like Brady or Moss or even Welker for a substantial amount of time will derail this team.
4. Age/Departures. I never believed the Patriots secondary was that good, but with the loss of Pro Bowler Asante Samuel to the Philadelphia Eagles, the secondary has taken a significant hit. While teams were busy bastardizing Ellis Hobbs, Samuel was able to lock down the number one receiving threat with a consistent basis. As for the age factor, it hasn’t gotten any better. I said age would be a problem for this team last year and, despite making it to the Super Bowl, it was apparent that a lot of the guys on this team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, were gassed. How long is this team going to keep looking to Teddy Bruschi, Junior Seau, and Rodney Harrison for playmaking ability? I remarked earlier in the week that the signing of John Lynch was a bit suspect because Lynch doesn’t bring much to the field outside of run-stopping ability. Age makes players lose a step in coverage; Lynch has lost three.
5. “The Easiest Schedule in the League.” Enough with this crap, okay? Anyone who is printing the Patriots a plane ticket to Tampa for the Super Bowl because of their “strength of schedule” is high. Pre-season schedule rankings never work out like they appear because the NFL is a league full of parody. Does anyone outside of Buffalo think the Bills are going to win more than 6 games this year? Maybe they should; the Bills are going to surprise some people and, what do you know, they get the Patriots twice. New England still has to go to Seattle, to Indianapolis, to San Diego, and host Pittsburgh. I’m not penciling in any of those games as wins, not yet.
Well, there you go. Five reasons the New England Patriots won’t be the best team in the AFC. Stay tuned as I look around the NFL and critique more teams and why they might or might not have success in the 2008 season.
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I agree with lots of your points, except #1. Few teams have the personnel of a New York Giants or San Diego. Both of these teams were able to get past that dominant offensive line and get into Brady’s face, forcing some mistakes out of him. But few teams have the luxury of a Jammer/Cromartie cornerback duo or a Strahan/Osi/Tuck/Alford/Etc. pass rush. Much easier said than done.