The Hunt for October: Sonny’s Contenders and Pretenders

by sonny on August 18, 2008

If the Major League Baseball season continues to shake up like it has we could be in for a very special treat. Many Major League teams are adding to the excitement that we see night in and night out, but it remains to be seen what teams will have enough to withstand the tough month of September and stay alive. Let’s take a look at this year’s pretenders and contenders for the upcoming dramatic playoff race.

A.L. Pretenders:
Tampa Bay Rays- I feel really bad for putting the Rays in this spot, but I don’t see them making it out alive in the A.L. East. The Red Sox will find some way to make this thing close before September comes. If stud third baseman Evan Longoria and closer Troy Percival can get off the DL sooner rather than later the Rays could have a chance, but putting everything on Carlos Pena and Australian Grant Balfour is a tough thing to ask.

Minnesota Twins- Tip your hat to the Twins for staying in it this long. Losing Santana and Hunter gave the image of a losing year back in Spring Training, however the emergence of young pitchers such as Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey have kept the Twins floating. The main problem with the Twins lies with the lineup outside of All-Stars Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. The Twins will take on the Mariners and Oakland this week in a 7 game west coast swing; games in which they need to play well in to stay on top of the division.

N.L. Pretenders:
Philadelphia Phillies- The Phillies leader in wins is Jamie Moyer. Ouch. This squad has no pitching outside Cole Hamels and Moyer. And please don’t sit here and tell me that fat ass Joe Blanton was the answer to the Phillies pitching problems. They made a weak push for Rich Harden and are quickly learning that Blanton’s cheese curd fastball can’t hold much to Harden’s dominance. Their lineup is stacked, but their rotation isn’t. Balanced teams make the playoffs. The blue collar working class of Philadelphia will once again have to hope the Mets collapse in a New York minute (or seven games in seventeen days like last year).

Florida Marlins- Time just might be the worst enemy for the Marlins at this point. Sitting 4.5 games behind the Mets with a month and half remaining is hard job to finish. Dan Uggla has certainly cooled off, but you can’t discredit the performance put forth by Jorge Cantu this season along with superstar Hanley Ramirez. This lineup represents a hit and run ball club that can’t seem to get enough support from the pitching staff. Ricky Nolasco is doing all he can, but he is only getting help from the other established pitcher on the staff, Scott Olson.

A.L. Contenders:
Chicago White Sox- The White Sox have all the pieces in place to win the AL Central title, but pitching will be the key for them down the stretch. Having Carlos Quentin do way more than he was expected to do is a very nice bonus for slumping guys like Nick Swisher (nice MVP pick, Pedro Gomez) and Paul Konerko. If their young pitchers could hold up, veterans like Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez should be able to do the rest as they have been in this position before. In their final 12 series’ the Sox will have to face 7 teams with winning records.

Boston Red Sox- Outside of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester the Boston Red Sox are running on empty. Josh Beckett won’t show up till October, but the Sox have to make it there first. With J.D. Drew injured for the time being the Red Sox will have to look to Jacoby Ellsbury once again to make plays everyday in right field while Coco Crisp shags balls in center. Adding Jason Bay has somewhat replaced Manny’s stick, but in the end the Canadian is no Man Ram. David Ortiz has been very streaky this year when healthy yet having Big Papi finally healthy is definitely a plus. Somehow, someway, the Bo Sox will take the A.L. East; hurdling over Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- Dominant.  This division was theirs in March.

N.L. Contenders:
Milwaukee Brewers- When Brewers G.M. Doug Melvin said they’re going for it, he meant it. CC Sabathia has been well worth the price of Matt Laporta and Ben Sheets has actually stayed healthy (knock on wood). Aside from their stellar one-two punch in the rotation the Crew continues to mash behind the bats of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Mike Cameron has also been a nice addition hitting 21 home runs after missing the first month. The Brewers will continue to sit around the top of the wild card, but there is no doubt they need help from pitchers Manny Parra and Jeff Suppan

Chicago Cubs- The Cubs simply won’t lose. End of story.

New York Mets- Are we in for another collapse? The Mets are hanging on by a thread right now over the Phillies in the A.L. East. Santana hasn’t lost since late June and is simply on cruise control at the moment. New York seems to be on the verge of being done with Pedro Martinez while a guy who has really stepped up for them in the clutch has been Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has been a big boost in the rotation and looks like he’s starting to figure it out in his third big league season. Carlos Delgado’s bat has also been a great addition to the mix. After starting the year slow and getting a kick in the ass from former manager Willie Randolph, Delgado has stepped up in recent months to help an already great lineup. Reyes and Wright have continued their success and will keep the engine going.

Arizona Diamondbacks- If Randy Johnson can keep improving by each start the Diamondbacks will have the best rotation in the league. Johnson won 5 games in a row from July 6th through August 1st. As far as their lineup goes, Mark Reynolds is tearing the cover off the ball right now. The kid is taking this team and putting them on his back. The addition of Adam Dunn hasn’t produced a single homer from his bat, but his average has climbed since joining Arizona. The D’backs might have the most complete team in the league, now it’s time for them to build a divisional lead.

Los Angeles Dodgers- Joe Torre has balanced his young talent with his old fairly nice thus far. They climbed back into this N.L. West and have exploded since Manny joined them. Manny has felt at home in L.A. as well belting 6 home runs to go along with 21 RBI’s and a .424 avg. Chad Billingsley has dominated in the rotation as Clayton Kershaw and Derek Lowe continue to fill in nicely. This team is coming together quickly with the addition of Manny. They would probably need to win the division if they wanted to get into October, but it’s nothing Joe Torre can’t handle.

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

rich August 18, 2008 at 11:45 am

The Marlins still get 6 games against the Mets, I wouldn’t call overcoming 4.5 games unattainable. Also not sure how you left the St Louis Cardinals out of this discussions…they’re only two games back of the Brewers

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asita August 18, 2008 at 11:53 am

Sonny, I gotta disagree with you. The Twins are every bit the contender the White Sox are. First of all the Twins are ‘floating’ not because of their young pitchers, but because of their AVG w/ RISP which is hovering somewhere around .318, the highest in all of baseball since the late 1970’s. While Mauer and Morneau have certainly done their part, Denard Span, Delmon Young, and Jason Kubel are all hitting well as of late, and Alexi Casilla is due to return from injury this week. The Twins bullpen is their biggest weakness, and by weakness, I mean gaping black hole.

And the Twins West Coast Road Trip is gonna be hard yeah, facing the Angels is never fun, and the Twins have never had a good time out West, but the White Sox got it just as tough, having to play vs Tampa, and @ Baltimore and Boston.

Personally, I’m just glad the Yankees won’t make it…That’s right I’m writing em off right now.

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ryan August 18, 2008 at 2:45 pm

I think the Twins have a great shot. I’m a little more confident in their young arms than I am with John Danks and his supporting cast of failures.

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