With an amazing tournament full of excitement and surprises coming to an end, Sportable previews the UEFA EURO 2008 Final between Germany and Spain.

How they got here:

Germany:

Group stage: W 2-0 v Poland, L 1-2 v Croatia, W 1-0 v Austria (6 points, 2^nd place)

Quarterfinal: W 3-2 v Portugal

Semifinal: W 3-2 v Turkey

Spain:

Group stage: W 4-1 v Russia, W 2-1 v Sweden, W 2-1 v Greece (9 points, 1^st place)

Quarterfinal: D 0-0 v Italy; won penalty shootout 4-2

Semifinal: W 3-0 v Russia

Tactics:

Germany:
Since the quarterfinal against Portugal, Germany has fielded a 4-2-3-1 with Lukas Podolski and Bastian Schweinsteiger at the wings, two defensive midfielders in Thomas Hitzlsperger and Simon Rolfes, and captain Michael Ballack as the CAM. It is likely, however, that Torsten Frings will replace either Rolfes or Hitzlsberger for the final. Miroslav Klose has been leading the line as a lone striker. Joachim Lowe also went back to the 2006 World Cup backline after Marcell Jansen’s ineffective performances, moving Turkey killer Philipp Lahm back to LB and bringing back Arne Friedrich. As a result, Germany has been more industrious in midfield and is much more offensive minded with six goals in two matches. The concern is the four goals that they have conceded since the quarters. Only the second Turkish goal can be attributed to Jens Lehmann being crazy Jens. Against a Spanish side that looked great against an offensive-minded Russia, Germany must be watertight at the back.

Spain:
Obviously the big question is whether Spain will have Valencia forward and EURO 2008 top scorer David Villa. With him, they play a 4-4-2 with Sergio Ramos, Carles Puyol, Carlos Marchena and Joan Capdivela at the back, Marcos Senna as the holding midfielder, Xavi as the playmaker, Andres Iniesta playing in an adaptive role at right winger, David Silva at left winger, and Villa and Fernando Torres up front. However, it is unlikely that Villa will be fit, as team doctor Jesus Jimenez says that the mercurial striker has a small tear in the back of right thigh that would ordinarily take 7-10 days to heal. If that is the case, then Cesc Fabregas will deputize as he did to maximum effect against Russia. Spain coach Luis Aragones’ preferred formation is 4-5-1, and with Fabregas’ man of the match display, he will not hesitate to deploy him against the Germans. Spain plays a slick passing game that they can either use at a slow build-up pace or a fast attacking style. With Xavi and Fabregas in the lineup, their passing and ball control is even more clinical and will be the key to holding possession. The Spanish defense has been dogged by questions, but it has managed to keep two clean sheets. Of course, a lot of the credit has to go to the captain Iker Casillas.

Keys for each team:

Germany:

1. They must not concede more than one goal. Germany has the capability of scoring multiple goals, but against Casillas, they will have a difficult time of finding the net unless they get the perfect goal.

2. They must be physical in midfield. Spain will be slick and finesse in midfield, which is where all their attacks start. If they want to cut off the Spanish supply line, Ballack and two of Frings/Hitzlsberger/Rolfes must be strong.

3. Michael Ballack. Ballack has never won a major club trophy, having lost out twice on the UEFA Champions League, or international trophy, being suspended for the 2002 FIFA World Cup final and having an ineffectual display in the 2006 FIA World Cup semifinal against Italy. If Germany is going to win this match, Ballack must be at his best.

4. Penalty shootout. Germany’s record in penalty shootouts is 5-1, so this is definitely a huge mental edge if it does go this far.

Spain:

1. The defense. Italy wasn’t much of a test as all they were doing was pumping long balls to Luca Toni. Their best display was against Russia, when Dutch killer Andrei Arshavin hardly saw the ball. They must continue that form against Germany if they are to have any chance of winning this match. Casillas cannot bail Puyol and Marchena out every time.

2. The midfield supply line. Will the Spanish get the same performances out of Xavi, Iniesta and Fabregas that did against Russia? Fabregas was awesome in midfield, so there will be no doubt that Germany will have him marked the entire match. Can he still produce his best form? They have enough playmaking talent in this midfield to score the goals, so this must be THE strength for Spain.

3. Fernando Torres. He has not found the same form for Spain that he did for Liverpool. Against Russia, he had more than a few chances to score and could have done much better. It doesn’t help him that within minutes of Daniel Guiza coming on, he found the net. Torres knows he has about 60 minutes to prove his worth, so he has to have an effective display or he won’t be on the pitch at the final whistle.

4. The underachievers. Spain have been notorious underachievers, the 1964 European Championship being their only major trophy. But they have broken two “jinxes” so far. The June 22 penalty shootout jinx was broken against Italy, and the so-called unlucky yellow proved to be quite lucky against Russia. This Spanish team looks to have what it takes, but they need to win this if the monkey is to be thrown off their back.

Prediction:

Spain have proven to be tougher than advertised, and I believe it will be this toughness that will carry them past a German side that isn’t as defensively sound as past editions. Spain wins 3-1 to claim the European Championship.