A Team A Day [Day 24] A Chicago Cubs Preview

Posted by ryan on April 1, 2008

cubs-win-cubs-win-cubs-wins.JPGBilly Goats, Bartman and Fuk U Do Me. The spending/hiring spree of the Chicago Cubs paid off in 2007…sort of. With new players like Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis and a new manager in Lou Piniella, the Cubs went from worst to first, winning the NL Central. Unfortunately, their playoff stay was short and sweet, losing in three games to the Diamondbacks. This year, with the help of an import from the Far East, the Cubs hope to exercise their century-long demons and reach the World Series…or at least win a postseason game.

Bats. On paper, the Cubs boast one of baseball’s best lineups. With the signing of Japanese superstar Kosuke Fukudome, the Cubs’ middle part of the order may be the best in the National League. At the top of the lineup, Alfonso Soriano should be more comfortable in his second year at Wrigley Field. Signed for the most expensive deal in Cubs history (8 years for $136 million), Soriano struggled early, but rebounded late in the year to finish with 33 homers and 70 RBIs. Is that sort of production worth $17 million a year? Probably not, but Soriano is still an elite player with a bigtime bat at the top of the order.

One of the Cubs’ middle infield scrappers will likely hit 2nd for this team. Shortstop Ryan Theriot and 2nd baseman Mark DeRosa were both clutch during the Cubs’ torrid summer run that culminated in them winning the NL Central. Also, look for middle infielder Mike Fontenot to take some at-bats away from both Theriot and DeRosa. Fontenot hit .278 in 86 games for the North Siders.If this team is going to return to the postseason, it’s going to be on the back of their 3-4-5 hitters. Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Fukudome should combine for around 90 homers. Lee’s power numbers fell to 22 last season, but his .317 average was solid as always. Ramirez was this team’s most important hitter last year, finsihing at .310-26-101. If you had to point to a moment that turned around the Cubs’ season, look no further than Ramirez’s walkoff homer against Milwaukee in late June, which extended a Chicago winning streak and may have rattled the Brewers a bit in the process. Fukudome, the new guy in town, got off to the best start imaginable in yesterday’s opener, hitting a three-run game tying homer off Milwaukee’s Eric Gagne yesterday. As he took the field in the 10th inning, the Bleacher Bums of Wrigley Field greeted him to a thunderous ovation. Clutch hitting like that will make his $48 million contract look like a bargain.

After that vaunted middle of the order, the Cubs hope a couple of their young prospects can flourish. Catcher Geovany Soto hit .389 with Chicago in very limited action last year. He has all the makings of being one of baseball’s elite backstops. In center field, the Cubs hope Felix Pie can live up to the hype that the organization gave him over the last couple seasons. Pie has tons of speed and range in center field, but hasn’t shown he can be a consistent big-league hitter. The Cubs signed Blue Jays veteran Reed Johnson if Pie keeps struggling.

Arms. For all the big bats in the Cubs’ lineup, the pitching staff still has me a bit worried. Carlos Zambrano looked slimmed down and impressive in his debut yesterday, so I look for him to have a solid year with the occasional “Big Z Blowup.” Zambrano won 18 games in 2007, but had stretches of awfulness throughout the season. I want consistency from an ace and Z doesn’t always bring it.

After Zambrano, the Cubs have a duo of lefties that were huge for them in 2007. Veteran Ted Lilly signed for $40 million in the offseason and surprisingly didn’t pick a fight with Lou Piniella. The change of scenery was great for Lilly, who went 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA. Can he do it again? He’s had some solid years, but none as good as his first with the Cubs. It remains to be seen whether National League hitters will adjust to Lilly’s antics. The young lefty, Rich Hill, was dynamite in his first full season in the bigs. He went 11-8 with an ERA under 4, numbers that I see improving in ‘08.

I don’t carry the same confidence with the back end of this rotation. Ryan Dempster is making the move from “unreliable closer” to “sketchy starter.” Don’t forget that Dempster has some starting experience with the Marlins. He won 15 games for them way back in 2000, but has only made six starts since 2004. Jason Marquis posted a 12-9 record in his first year with the team, but got hit around after his great April and May. Finishing with an ERA of over 4.50 sounds about right for Marquis. I expect him to exceed 5 this year.

In the bullpen, the Cubs hope Kerry Wood can translate his game from oft-injured starter to dominant closer. That idea is off to a horrible start, as Wood gave up three runs in yesterday’s 9th inning against Milwaukee. If When Wood goes down to yet another injury/awful outing, I expect dominant 8th inning man Carlos Marmol to be moved to closer. Marmol’s impact was so great, he actually received a vote for National League MVP. In 59 games last year, Marmol’s ERA was 1.43. If and when Marmol becomes the closer, expect Bob Howry and Michael Wuertz to fill the middle relief void. Both appeared in over 70 games last year and posted solid numbers.

Outlook. The Cubs enter 2008 as the co-favorites to win the National League Central. But this team is unique for historical reasons. The Cubs, like the Red Sox before them, have to battle not only their opponent, but 100 years of historical futility. Even with this talent, they still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory more than any team in baseball. Yesterday’s shitshow proved that even when things are going right for the Cubs, things will eventually go very, very wrong.

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