Big Red Machine ready to wear out cliche’ name and National League foes. A quick gaze into many pundit’s season previews reveals the Reds are a favorite to be the dark horse in the National League. Seems to me that if most people are picking them to be a dark horse, the Reds wouldn’t be much of a dark horse at all. Rather, it sounds like a case of the Mondays overzealousness to find a gem before every season starts. But fear not, Reds fans, for there is renewed hope for this franchise. Dusty Baker has brought his bag of high pitch counts, inevitable arm surgeries for pitching prospects, and discrimination against young talent to the Reds, a team in dire need of strong leadership. He should be able to build a winner with this talent-laden roster provided he doesn’t choke on the toothpick he always seems to be macking on.
Bats. Lost among the big, shiny, attention grabbing lineups of divisional rivals such as the Cubs and Brewers is a Reds lineup that is, in my opinion, the best in the division. The first aspect of this lineup that jumps out is the abundance of power. Adam Dunn is a man-child. While it’s admittedly futile for me to try and hide my affection for the corn fed who plays no defense and has minimal speed, I will boast about his power. Dunn is as reliable for 40 home runs a season as babies are to crap in diapers. His batting average, while never spectacular, rose to a respectable .264 last season. Furthermore while many Dunn critics are quick to point out his large number of strike outs (165 last season), I’d like to point out that he also drew over 100 walks last season. He’s not just a free swinger, he’s a free swinger with purpose. Making the move to right field will be my favorite player of all time, Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey Son, no longer the agile venus fly trap in center, makes the move to right for defensive reasons and longevity. Don’t sleep on Junior because, if healthy, he’s still got the sweetest swing in baseball and knows what to do with a meat pitch. Junior hit 30 home runs last season and I fail to see why he can’t duplicate those numbers this year barring him shredding his hamstring….again. Rounding out the outfield is Ryan Freel, the super utility douchebag that you love to hate because he’s the guy who comes into a three game series against your favorite team, steals a few bases, drives in a few pivotal runs, and makes a silly catch that you’d thought you would only see on a video game. Expect Freel to relenquish his duties in center as the year progresses because Jay Bruce, the Reds top prospect, will undobutedly get a shot to steal the starting job.
Brandon Phillips is a name that more people are growing accustomed to, and with good reason. Since coming to Cincinnati and being given the opportunity to start, Phillips has torn the cover off the ball. While I pat myself on the back for finding this gem two years ago after coming over from Cleveland, take a look at these numbers. Phillips hit .288 last year, hit 30 home runs, drove in 94 RBI’s, and stole 32 bases. Fantasy owners; there aren’t many 30-30 guys left in baseball, and the fact that Phillips is still a relative unknown and plays in a bandbox like Great American means he’s worth looking at. I’m not going to waste any more time in calling out Edwin Encarnacion. It’s time for Encarnacion, the Reds highly touted third baseman, to take the next step. He’s floated around 15 home runs each of the past two seasons and, by my estimations, is due to elevate to 20 or 25.
Pitching. My hesitation to make this team a sleeper to win the division comes from their shaky pitching staff. While Aaron Harang looks permanently stoned, his elevation to being one of the elite pitchers in the National League shouldn’t be overlooked. Harang is a lock to strike out over 200 batters, doing so in each of his past two seasons. His ERA of 3.72 has to be considered better than average due in part to Great American playing like the fences are 200 feet away. While Jake Peavy gets credit for having a better ERA because of his pitcher friendly ballpark, I think it’s only reasonable that Harang be given a little slack for his ERA because of his hitter friendly ballpark. Behind him is guitar strumming wanna-be rockstar Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo’s game fell out of C-minor into D-major last season, going 9-15 and regressing from his 14-11 campaign two years ago. Shit! Behind Arroyo will be newcomer Josh Fogg. My opinions on Fogg are mixed because he found ways to win meaningful games last year despite having numbers that were less than stellar. I see Fogg floating around 10 wins and having an ERA around 5 while spending the year complaining about how Great American isn’t any easier to pitch in than Coors Field was.
The big splash of the Reds off-season came in the bullpen. For the hefty price of $46 million, the Reds lured closer Francisco Cordero from the division rival Brewers. Cordero was outstanding last year, saving 44 games for the Crew and posting an ERA just south of three at 2.98. Having a solid closer at the end of games is something the Reds have lacked since the days of Danny Graves Norm Charlton and Randy Myers. Outside of Cordero, the Reds bullpen can be deemed as shaky. David Weathers enters his 37th major league campaign and, despite his age and the fact that his arm is essentially rubber, will get roughly 70 appearances this season. Another ex-Rockie, Jeremy Affeldt myself comes over and should help in the bullpen after posting surprisingly good numbers in Colorado last year. I also expect guys like Bill Bray and Matt Belisle to bounce back and have better years than their respective abominations last year.
Outlook. I’m not ready to crown this team a division winner just yet. The Reds certainly have some issues with pitching both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. If, by some divine intervention, the Reds find a way to produce a decent staff, I think you’ll see this team up competing with the likes of the Cubs and Brewers. Dark horse? Nah, it’s not a secret anymore.
