A Team A Day [Day 19] Philadelphia Phillies Preview
Posted by ryan on March 27, 2008
Will City of Brotherly Love Finally Toast a Champion? Last season was a strange, strange journey for the Phillies. After star shortstop (and future MVP) Jimmy Rollins predicted a division title in the offseason, the Phillies stumbled out of the gate, culminating in manager Charlie Manuel going senile and challenging reporters to a fight. But months later, the Phillies made good on Rollins’ guarantee, capitalizing on the Mets’ historic choke and winning the National League East. Unfortunately for the Fightin’ Phils, their good fortune quickly ended at the hands of the red-hot Colorado Rockies. Now in 2008, the Phillies must make good on yet another Rollins guarantee and this time, make some noise in October.
Bats. Boasting, in my opinion, the best lineup in the National League, the Phillies score runs in bunches. And it certainly doesn’t hurt their offense when they play in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are a team that can claim three of the game’s elite players in their infield. It all starts with Rollins, whose dream 2007 ended with a National League MVP award. The numbers were silly: 139 runs, 212 hits, 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 homers, 94 RBI and 41 stolen bases. But those numbers may in fact pale in comparison to the swagger and confidence he brought to the Phils’ clubhouse. Rollins has already predicted 100 wins for the Phillies this year in a back-and-forth shit talking session with Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran.
Joining Rollins in the infield are the game’s elite 1st and 2nd basemen. Starting at 2nd base, Chase Utley headlines a long list of talented players at the position. While guys like Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton and Robinson Cano are all incredibly talented, Utley is still the premier guy at the position. Despite missing 30 games to injury, Utley batted a career best .332 with 22 homers and 103 RBIs. His average has increased by 20 points in each of his first three seasons, so betting on Utley to win the National League Batting title isn’t an unrealistic expectation. He’s already made good on the $85 million extension awarded to him last season.
To Utley’s right is Ryan Howard, possibly the game’s purest power hitter. Howard represents the “old school” slugger, a guy who won’t win a batting crown like an Albert Pujols or David Ortiz. Instead, Howard goes big every at-bat. He shook off a slow start to finish with 47 homers and 136 RBI, giving him 105 long balls over the last two years. Even more impressive than those power numbers are Howard’s strikeout figures. Howard fanned an astounding 199 times last year, setting a Major League Baseball record for most K’s in a season. 37% of Howard’s at-bats ended with a strikeout. But when you homer once every nine or ten at-bats, fans tend to overlook that sort of stuff.
Rounding out the infield at the hot corner is Pedro Feliz, who should thrive in a lineup loaded with protection. There’s no denying Feliz’s power. He’s exceeded 20 homers in each of the last four seasons while playing for the Giants. Now, in a hitter’s paradise, Feliz should come close to 30 homers or so. Not a major headline signing for the Phillies, but a definite upgrade over guys like David Bell.
If I flashed a stat line of .281-12-46 with 37 steals, you might expect to see an elite player like Carl Crawford. Nope, those are the numbers of center fielder Shane Victorino, one of the most underrated players in baseball. Overlooked in a stacked lineup, the Flyin’ Hawaiian has become one of the game’s best #2 hitters. When him and Rollins are wreaking havoc on the basepaths at the top of the order, pitchers can’t give Utley, Howard, Feliz and Pat Burrell their full attention. The result? Lots of runs for Philadelphia. Think the San Diego Padres regret returning this Rule 5 draft pick? Yeah, me too.
Victorino is flanked by a couple of veterans with pop in their bat. Pat Burrell won’t win any popularity contests among the Phillies faithful. But he still has 30 homerun ability and one of the game’s best on base percentages. In right field, longtime Brewer Geoff Jenkins joins the club. Jenkins is a very good defensive outfielder and just like every other player in this lineup, he has pop in his bat.
Arms. A somewhat unsettling pitching staff is the thing keeping me from penciling this team into the playoffs. However, there’s nothing to worry about at the top of this rotation. Lefty Cole Hamels has come into his own the last couple of seasons and posted Cy Young Award type numbers in 2007, going 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA. At just 24 years old, Hamel’s best years are still on the horizon. Last year’s savior at closer, Brett Myers, finds his hyper, wife-beating ass back in the starting rotation. Myers is probably more suited for a closer’s role because closers can be crazy bastards unfit to function in society and it’s perfectly acceptable. In the starting rotation, Myers has to be a civilized human being, something he’s not capable of. But he still has some excellent stuff. Myers had posted consecutive seasons with an ERA under four before Manuel moved him to the bullpen after early struggles last year.
The team’s third starter, young Kyle Kendrick, thought he was on his way to play in Japan. However, that turned out to be just a prank planned by…guess who? Myers. No, the Japanese hot dog eating champion will not pitch for the Phillies. Instead, Kendrick returns after a stellar rookie season that saw him go 10-4 with an ERA of 3.84 in 20 starts. With the chance to pitch for the Phillies from the outset, look for Kendrick to be a solid 3rd starter for this club.
The back of the rotation has me a little worried. How long can 45-year-old Jamie Moyer keep this charade up? He doesn’t throw much harder than your average pitching machine and he gives up a lot of runs. But somehow, he still went 14-12 despite pitching in a launching pad. The 5th starter’s role has been locked up by Adam Eaton, the oft-injured righty that tantalizes with his ability, but pisses everyone off with his inconsistency. Eaton has done nothing to validate the $24 million the Phillies signed him a couple of years back. Since leaving San Diego, his ERA has ballooned a run in each of the last two years. If he keeps this up, you can expect some batteries to be airborne during his starts.
In the bullpen, former Phillies closer Tom Gordon finds himself back in the role after rally igniter Brad Lidge was moved to the DL to start the season. Lidge showed signs of coming out of his Albert Pujols induced funk last year, but pitching in Philadelphia is completely different than pitching in front of the folks down in Texas. If Lidge fails (which he will), they’ll ride Lidge harder than JD Drew, Pat Burrell, Eric Lindros and Donovan McNabb put together. JC Romero, Mark Ryan Madsen and Chad Durbin are the best options out of the pen.
Outlook. The Phillies are out to prove that last year was no fluke. In a wide-open National League East against improved New York and Atlanta, anything is possible. The Phillies can come close to Rollins’ prediction of 100 wins…or they could watch their pitching fall apart and go back to 3rd place. In Philadelphia, anything is possible. And if the last couple years are any indication, anything that could happen will happen.

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