Every day (or so) for the next month I will be previewing one of the upcoming college bowl games. I will give my thoughts on the teams playing, players to be on the lookout for, and a general overview of the bowl.
The Utah Utes haven’t been the same since the drafting of quarterback Alex Smith and the departure of head coach Urban Meyer. They find themselves matched up against Tulsa in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, This game will probably be as good as you could expect a matchup between Conference USA and Mountain West teams to be.
The Utes come into the game heavily reliant upon their passing offense as their means of winning football games. They have a decent defense to go along with their offense, but their relatively easy schedule only pad the stats in their favor. Their three games against tough teams (UCLA, Boise State, BYU) they gave up an average of 33 points per game. This is far and above the 20 points per game they averaged during the regular season. And what does this tell us? Their defense feasts on weaker opponents but struggles when put up against a good team. Senior quarterback Brett Ratliff certainly isn’t Alex Smith, but his 2500 yards make him worth noting. He has put up good numbers all year long and gotten this team to the point they are at now. While Utah has a 7-5 record, those seven wins aren’t against the strongest opponents in the NCAA. They have feasted on bottom dwellers the likes of San Diego State, Northern Arizona, Airforce and Utah State and lost to all of the good teams they played. This Utah team is good enough to finish third in the Mountain West, but won’t be making noise against any of the big time schools anytime soon.
Tulsa comes in with a similar track record. They sport an 8-4 record, but with one good team on their schedule, it is somewhat difficult to judge the Golden Hurricanes. They may have a more balanced offense than Utah, but they come in using almost a running back by committee stlye that is somehow working. They have four running backs with over 50 attempts and have racked up over 2000 yards on the ground, so I guess it is working for them. Their quarterback, Paul Smith, has 2500 yards passing, so it isn’t like they focus their attack solely on the ground. When looking at their schedule the only thing that really jumps out is the 49-24 loss at BYU. This is a considerably bigger margin of defeat than Utah had, but again was earlier in the year and a non-conference game. Their defense can step it up against the lower level teams, much like Utah, but seems to struggle against the stronger offenses.
This should be a very close matchup. These teams appear to stack up very evenly against each other. I think both defenses will struggle a bit, and we could see a shoot out in this one. I’m going to give the edge to Utah, because of their tougher schedule, and because of their greater success against shared opponents.
My Prediction: Utah Wins
